The CPB's Macro Economic Outlook, published on 15 September 2026, puts median purchasing power in 2027 at minus 0.1 percent with inflation at 2.7 percent, while the government confirmed the same day that the compulsory deductible rises from 385 to 400 euro, t…
What you need to know
On 15 September 2026 the Dutch planning bureau CPB closed its books on next year: median purchasing power still falls by 0.1 percent in 2027, inflation lands at 2.7 percent and the economy grows 1.2 percent. The word median does little for any single household, because it lines up every household in the country and takes the one in the middle. What actually reaches your bank account is the set of three figures the government published the same day: the compulsory deductible rises from 385 to 400 euro, the average health insurance premium rises by 12.50 to 169 euro a month, and the healthcare allowance for a single person goes up to a maximum of 140 euro a month. Those three you can put your own household into, so the arithmetic is written out below instead of an average being handed to you.
- Why the premium rises instead of falling: in the Dutch system the deductible and the premium are a seesaw, and a higher deductible holds the premium down. The cabinet postponed by a year the extra step it had planned for the 2027 deductible, and the price of that is a slightly larger premium increase in 2027, which the CPB names as the factor offsetting the improvement in purchasing power. (source 1, source 2)
- The CPB's key figures: median purchasing power in 2027 at minus 0.1 percent against plus 0.6 percent in 2026, inflation 2.7 percent against 3.3 percent, growth 1.2 percent, unemployment 4.0 percent and the share of people in poverty steady at 2.6 percent. What lifts purchasing power 0.2 percentage points above the August forecast is a higher arbeidskorting and a lower rate in the first tax bracket. (source 1, source 3)
- Who this matters to most: for foreign residents the decisive line is not the minus 0.1 percent but the zorgtoeslag. It is calculated on income and assets, and people early in their careers, students and single-earner households often qualify without ever applying. A maximum of 140 euro a month is 1,680 euro a year, which covers well over half of the premium. (source 2)
- Next step and the trap: 169 euro is a national average, not any insurer's price list, and individual insurers publish their own 2027 premiums later. So the move now is not to switch policies in a hurry but to work out your own three numbers and compare once the real price lists appear. (source 2)
Do the sum yourself with your own household size. One, the premium: 12.50 euro more per adult per month is 150 euro a year, so 300 euro for two adults. Two, the deductible: it only costs more if you actually use care, and the maximum extra is 15 euro a year (400 minus 385), so 30 euro for two adults. A household of two adults receiving no allowance therefore has a ceiling of 330 euro on this item in 2027. Three, the allowance: up to 140 euro a month for a single person, 1,680 euro a year, subject to income and assets. Four, that minus 0.1 percent: multiply your annual disposable income by 0.001 and you have the scale the CPB sentence means for you, which on 40,000 euro is 40 euro, an order of magnitude below the 330. Do one and two first, then go and check three. (source 1, source 2)
Hokimi field note: look up how much of your deductible you actually spent in 2026. If you have not reached 385 euro in either of the last two years, the move to 400 is a paper figure for you and the real change is the 12.50 euro a month. Sources: the official CPB and Rijksoverheid pages and NOS reporting; rechecked by Hokimi on 16 September 2026.
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